Why would any body bet Yes on Jesus' return in 2025?

Polymarket peg the price of Yes and No share using the following mechanism. $1 can be minted into 1 Yes share and 1 No share. Conversely, 1 Yes share and 1 No share can combine and redeem back to $1. So if the prices of Yes and No shares don't add up to $1, arbitrageurs will come and profit from the difference.

Yes share holders expect the No share holders to sell their No shares at lower price later on, for example, when some more interesting future event happens that they need money to bet on. When that happens they will want to sell their No shares at lower price, or equivalently buy Yes shares to redeem their dollars back. The Yes share holders can therefore sell their tokens and profit from such price raise.

In conclusion, the Yes hoarders are betting not on Jesus but on whether there will be interesting events that people need money to bet on before the end of 2025.

An video explainer of Polymarket mechanism: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c6HWyACjE2A